The Reference Class Problem and Mathematical Models of Inference


Dale A. Nance


The ubiquity of reference class problems is conceded. I deny, however,that this precludes the use of a formal analysis that involves selection of a reference class by a witness for use by the trier of fact or by a judge or theorist as a tool in evaluating inferences. Specifically, I reject claims by Allen and Pardo that researchers using mathematical probability to analyse the probative value of evidence have proceeded on the assumption that for each item of evidence there is a uniquely correct reference class that can be selected for this purpose without an act of judgment.


Mathematical Models of Inference

Publication Date


Document Type


Place of Original Publication

International Journal of Evidence & Proof

Publication Information

11 International Journal of Evidence & Proof 259 (2007)

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COinS Dale A. Nance Faculty Bio